Worst-to-first stories are among the NFL’s favorite annual narratives because every season, at least one struggling franchise seems to find a way to surprise everyone.
Last year, the New England Patriots authored that type of turnaround, proving once again how quickly fortunes can shift in this league when the right coaching, roster moves, and quarterback play align. That naturally raises the question about the New York Jets.
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There is a legitimate reason for cautious optimism surrounding this team. General manager Darren Mougey appears to have the franchise moving in a healthier direction. For once, the Jets look like an organization operating with a coherent long-term plan.
Quarterback Geno Smith provides veteran stability at quarterback, hopefully... Head coach Aaron Glenn has more of the type of players that fit his vision, and the front office added intriguing offensive weapons while reinforcing the defense with proven veterans. That said, a major platform clearly believes optimism should come with limits.
In Pro Football Focus' recent ranking of the NFL’s eight last-place teams from the 2025 NFL season most likely to go worst-to-first in 2026, the Jets landed fifth. That placement may not sound terrible initially, but context changes the conversation. The New Orleans Saints, the Detroit Lions, the New York Giants, and the Tennessee Titans all ranked ahead of New York, leaving only the Las Vegas Raiders, the Cleveland Browns, and the Arizona Cardinals behind them.
The reasoning is fairly easy to understand. The Jets don’t simply need to improve. They need to navigate one of football’s most unforgiving conferences while competing in a division that offers very little margin for error.
The Buffalo Bills remain the standard until someone knocks them off, while the defending AFC champion Patriots have no intention of taking a step backward. Even the Miami Dolphins, despite receiving lower projections elsewhere, still have enough talent to create problems.
PFF’s skepticism also centers on one of the more obvious variables: quarterback Geno Smith.
If Smith’s best football is behind him or offensive coordiantor Frank Reich struggles to modernize the offense, then the offseason improvements may not matter nearly as much immediately as Jets fans hope.
Even if both simply provide competent performances, the projection still feels more aligned with seven or eight wins than a legitimate sprint toward a division crown. That may not be glamorous, but it would still qualify as progress.
The Jets can absolutely be better in 2026, but going worst-to-first in this particular division feels like a much heavier lift than simply winning a few extra games.
Respectability may be within reach. Contention remains a far tougher conversation. Time will tell what happens.
This article originally appeared on Jets Wire: PFF: Could the 2026 New York Jets go for worst-to-first in AFC East?