While Prime Minister Mark Carney plans to double Canada’s non-U.S. exports to $600 billion annually in 10 years, a new study by the Fraser Institute suggests it’s probably unachievable.
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In other words, the prime minister’s target may be an aspirational one, rather than real.
“The (Carney) government is not the first to prioritize diversifying trade away from the United States and it’s important to understand the limited success of previous efforts by other governments to do so,” said Jock Finlayson, co-author of “Assessing Canada’s Trade Dependence on the U.S.”
Carney said last August when announcing his new major projects office — a key component of increasing Canada’s non-U.S. exports — that his government would move forward at “speeds not seen in generations.”
But the study by the fiscally conservative think tank says previous federal governments have launched ambitious programs to reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S. for five decades with only limited success.
Over the quarter century from 1999 to 2024, the study found, the total share of goods exported to the U.S. from Canada decreased only modestly, from 86.7% in 1999 to 76.3% in 2024.
That’s a drop of just 12% in a quarter century while during the same period, Canada’s services exports to the U.S. fell from 60.4% in 1999 to 51.6% in 2024, a decrease of just 14.5%.
Beyond gov’t control
The report notes many factors which influence Canada-U.S. trade aren’t controlled by government because the decisions are made by the private sector.
“Crucially, Canada’s geographic proximity to the U.S. — the world’s largest economy — our similar legal standards and business practices, transportation costs and our well-developed cross-border transportation networks are important factors that have shaped Canada’s trade flows,” the study says.
“Counteracting those powerful factors to steer trade away from the U.S. has proven difficult in the past,” said study-coauthor Steven Globerman.
“This suggests that Canada will face significant challenges in reducing its export dependence on the U.S. going forward.”
To be sure, Carney’s attempt to diversify Canada’s trade to non-U.S. markets is a sensible policy in and of itself, which is why Canadian governments have been trying to do it for 50 years.
Trade has gradually declined in recent years
It’s also true that trade between Canada and the U.S, has been gradually declining in recent years, a process which has accelerated since the launch of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariff and trade war.
As Scotiabank reported earlier this month, “the share of Canadian exports bound for the U.S. is gradually trending lower, averaging 76% in 2024 and 72% in 2025, and coming in at 66% in February 2026. This has been driven by a decline in exports to the U.S. and increasing exports to other regions—mainly Europe.”
Carney also cites the fact that in his first year as PM. Canada has signed over 20 new economic and security agreements with foreign countries.
But those are in very early stages of development and over the next decade Canada’s trade with the U.S. and the world will be impacted by numerous factors his government doesn’t control — everything from the price of oil to foreign wars.
In addition, Carney’s aggressive pivot away from the U.S. to China raises concerns about permanently damaging our long-term relationship with our largest trading partner.