We’ve reached the quarter mark of a thrilling 2026 WNBA season. All-Star voting just opened up, and I’m sure the debates surrounding it will all be reasonable and not-at-all contentious as votes are cast for the league’s best players.
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[receives signal from earpiece]
Oh … oh dear. Well, we’ll hope for the best!
With every team logging at least 11 games at this point, it’s a good time to check in on this year’s MVP race. I emphasize that this is a check-in, not a prediction. We have months to go in the season, which means there’s plenty of time for things to change.
Look no further than last season; it felt like Napheesa Collier would run away with the award at this point last year, but the combination of A’ja Wilson’s dominance, that dominance spearheading an absurd win streak to close the season, and Collier missing time due to injury ultimately flipped the race.
Still, we have enough of a sample to start parsing through who the major players are.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
The Leader: A’ja Wilson
The voting doesn’t end today, but if it did, another unanimous MVP selection wouldn’t shock me.
Wilson leads the league in scoring (26.4 points) while doing so on insane shooting splits: 51% on 2s, a typo-worthy 55.2% on 3s (2.4 attempts is low volume, but the confidence is growing), and 84% from the line — good for a 61.8 true shooting clip. Add in 9.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists (a career high if it holds), 1.1 steals and a league-leading 2.3 blocks and the statistical case is pretty ironclad.
Not only is Wilson putting together eye-popping numbers, the Aces also have the wins to boot. They’re sporting the league’s second-best record (9-3) as of this writing, with a chance to take over the top seed with a win over the Minnesota Lynx on Saturday.
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It also helps that the on-off numbers, however much you care about them, are firmly in her favor: the Aces outscore opponents by +11.1 points per 100 possessions with her on the court, and are outscored by -7.7 when she sits.
The scary part is that Wilson could, and conceivably should perform better. She’s converting 35.2% of her midrange jumpers to start the year, on pace for the worst mark she’s had since 2021. That should normalize. It’s been an up-and-down year for her as a screener and defensive rebounder, though that’s rounding into form as of late (9.1 defensive rebounds across her last seven games).
With all due respect to the rest of the field, she’s in her own tier right now.
The Contenders: Breanna Stewart, Olivia Miles, Paige Bueckers
While it’s been odd watching Stewart’s 3-point shot continue to disappear (3.1 attempts, 17.5%), she remains arguably the second-best player in the league because of her ability to do everything else.
Stewart’s box score is loud enough — 20.4 points on 52/18/90 splits (57.3 true shooting), 8.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.9 blocks — and the Liberty are, predictably, a much better team with her on the floor. Still, watching her morph roles within a game, within a quarter, within a possession, remains a blast.
She initiates, posts up, screens, seals, and drives offensively. Her positional versatility on defense allows the Liberty to toggle matchups and schemes on the fly. She can be an on-ball menace, off-ball roamer, or command any area of the Liberty’s press-to-zone look. The Liberty aren’t where they are without her play.
In what has arguably been the league’s most pleasant surprise, Lynx rookie Olivia Miles has thoroughly exceeded expectations.
It wasn’t hard to imagine her pick-and-roll prowess, juice as a driver, and audacity as a passer to translate in the W. I’m not sure anyone had her leading the league in pick-and-roll volume, generating over 1.2 points (!) on possessions featuring a drive, and ultimately spearheading the Phee-less Lynx to the league’s best record in the process.
Miles is filling the stat sheet — 17.8 points on 59/37/91 splits (64.9 true shooting), 5.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks — while sporting one of the wildest on-off splits in the league. The Lynx transform from a firmly “meh” team (-0.3 net rating) with her on the bench, to a fire-breathing dragon (+21.7) with her on the floor. Saturday’s matchup with the Aces will be must-see television.
From a broader league perspective, it’s also incredibly cool that she has followed Paige Bueckers and Caitlin Clark to continue the trend of elite guard prospects hitting the ground running.
Speaking of Bueckers, what an impressive season this has been for her. I’m not sure enough has been made of the way her role on both ends of the floor has shifted following the hiring of Jose Fernandez — a Coach of the Year candidate in his own right.
She’s been moved around the board: ball screens, handoffs, a curious-but-exciting uptick in post-ups. After logging 34 post touches in 36 games last year, she’s at 16 (1.56 PPP, somehow) through 12 games this year. In light of the Wings trending smaller with their lineup constructions, Bueckers has had to take on tougher assignments defensively.
Per Second Spectrum, here are Bueckers’ 10 most frequent half-court matchups in order: Rhyne Howard (66 matchups), Chelsea Gray (37), Sonia Citron (34), Courtney Williams (33), Kayla McBride and Satou Sabally (28), Caitlin Clark, Natasha Cloud and Moniqua Akoa Makani (28), and Kelsey Plum (22). That’s a pretty wide variety of All-Stars and archetypes.
The defense has understandably been a mixed bag in light of the uptick in responsibility, but she’s navigating that responsibility while averaging 19.8 points on 57/43/79 splits (62.2 true shooting) and dropping nearly six dimes a game on the other end. And honestly, the assist count doesn’t really do her justice: factoring in the variety of passes she’s had to make this year, she’s been one of the best facilitators in the league this year.
Dark horses: Kelsey Plum, Rhyne Howard, A Fever Rep
If the MVP was simply about which player had performed the best in their minutes, Plum would have an argument for contender status.
In Year 2 of her Lead Guard Era, Plum is leading the entire league in points generated (41.6); her scoring (24.8 on 67/41/80 splits, 68.6 true shooting) places her second in the league, while her points via assist (16.8 on 6.9 assists) place her behind Alyssa Thomas (19.5 on 7.8 assists), Caitlin Clark (18.1 on 8.1 assists; more on her shortly), and Jordin Canada (16.8 on 6.7 assists).
Plum’s drives have been electric, with the Sparks generating nearly 1.3 points per possession when she attacks the basket. Her first step has been nearly impossible to deal with, and she’s had the audacity to mix in shoulder nudges and tempo-altering strides to further flummox defenders.
The Sparks are currently treading water with Plum on the floor (+0.4 net rating), but falling apart (-7.3 net rating) when she sits. That vibes with their record split: 5-4 when she plays, 1-2 when she doesn’t. More games played and more wins should see Plum shoot up the rankings if she maintains this level.
Howard has long been the Atlanta Dream’s franchise player. Their most recognizable name, most important player to their future, and, of course, a tremendously skilled basketball player. Through the early portion of this season, Howard has (finally) overtaken Allisha Gray (having another great season, by the way) as the Dream’s best player on top of this.
The offense will make the headlines; she’s averaging a career high in points (18.5 on 58.2 true shooting) behind the best 3-point shooting season of her career (38% on 9.1 attempts). The Dream continue to trust her as an initiator — 3.5 assists, plus narrowly slotting behind Canada for the team lead in pick-and-rolls.
The real story has been what Howard is doing defensively. She isn’t just leading the league in steals (3.2), she’s on pace to join Tamika Catchings and Teresa Weatherspoon as the only players in league history to average at least 3.0 per game.
It’d be one thing if Howard was just jumping passing lanes, but it’s been a complete effort for her. She’s been a sticky screen navigator on and off the ball. She routinely takes on tough defensive assignments, if not the toughest assignment. And she’s managed to create this amount of havoc, take on these assignments, and lower her foul count (2.9 to 2.7) at the same time.
If Howard takes another leap as an interior scorer — she’s converting a career-best 47.3% of her 2s, but doing so on career-low volume (5.0 attempts) — her MVP candidacy will become louder.
Finally, we tap in with the Indiana Fever. Their three-headed monster of Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell have each been very good in their own right, but all have MVP-level drawbacks.
Clark is, once again, putting together an unmatched box score (19.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks). Factoring in points via assist, only Plum is generating more total points per game than Clark (38.0). Even more so than the Bueckers point from earlier, Clark’s assist numbers don’t really do her passing ability justice. There are very few humans that can see the windows she does, much less make the passes to actually take advantage of those windows.
On the flip side, Clark’s efficiency (46/32/91 splits, 54.8 true shooting) trail the other candidates we’ve mentioned, her turnover numbers have improved (5.1 to 4.4) but still pace everyone else, and the defense has been … an adventure. A multilayered adventure — some of this is on her, some of this is on the defensive structure and execution around her, some of this is on opposing offenses scheming things up in a way to specifically ding (and counter) their structure — but an adventure nonetheless.
Boston is putting together another all-around campaign — a career-high 17.4 points (53/41/88 splits, 61.0 true shooting), 8.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.3 blocks. The 3-ball seems to be a real weapon for her now, a terrifying development considering how comfortable she is as a driver and (high) post hub.
But between lower body injuries (and maintenance) and an uptick in fouls (career-high 3.7), we haven’t actually gotten to see Boston as much as we’d like. She’s averaging a career-low 25.7 minutes, nearly five fewer minutes than last season (30.2).
And because Boston hasn’t had the same mobility, the defensive impact hasn’t reached the same heights as last season’s All-Defense campaign — at least not yet. I’ve pondered if Boston’s health, and the understandable maintenance around that, is part of the reason why the Fever have dialed back their at-the-level pick-and-roll defense from last year. It’s also a tad odd that, while the Fever have won her minutes (+1.4), they’ve performed notably better with her on the bench (+6.8).
(Honestly, if you have a moment — and I assume you do if you’ve read this far — please look at the Clark/Boston on-off stuff. It is stark how well they’ve performed when they’ve been split up.)
Then there’s Mitchell, once again lighting up the scoreboard (career high 20.4 points on 52/34/81 splits, 56.4 true shooting) and throwing defenses for a loop with her blend of on- and off-ball usage. She doesn’t have the same playmaking responsibility of Clark, nor does she hold down the fort defensively like Boston is tasked with, and yet, it’s Mitchell with the most favorable on-off splits of the three: +6.4 with her on, -5.9 with her off.
A Fever candidate will undoubtedly emerge — I’d bank on it being Clark or Boston largely because of the volume of responsibility — but it’ll be interesting to see how (quickly) that unfolds.