Oklahoma City has a problem. A very big problem.
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Not in the literal sense — it’s not suddenly doom and gloom for the defending champs simply because the Western Conference finals are tied 2-2 — but the Thunder are having a hard time figuring out their double-big lineups against an elite opponent. And this isn’t the first time.
Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren have played just 36 out of 192 possible minutes together this series, which equates to a little under 20% of the time. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is; during last year’s Finals, the tandem shared the floor for about 11% of the time. When they’ve been on the floor together, things haven’t quite worked out: Oklahoma City has been outscored by 36 points over 68 possessions. That’s hard to do in such a short amount of time.
The Thunder’s struggles pairing two skilled big men together, putting an emphasis on size in a series that demands skill, are unfortunate considering the timing. During the regular season, Oklahoma City was a monstrous +21 points per 100 possessions with both Hartenstein and Holmgren on the floor. But this isn’t early December or mid-March. Series have been won and lost because teams fail to properly diagnose and solve issues that arise within the duration of a matchup.
Playoffs are very interesting because at some point in the series it stops being about how good your team is and...can you solve this very specific thing right now.
— Steve Jones (@stevejones20) April 23, 2023
In a vacuum, the tradeoffs for leaning on two 7-footers are obvious. The Thunder have excelled on the glass during these playoffs (in the 99th percentile of offensive rebounding rate when Hartenstein and Holmgren are on the floor), done a solid job of deterring opponents from taking shots at the rim, and punished the teams that have dared to drive that far, allowing opponents to shoot just 55% at the rim.
But the drawbacks are also glaring. Head coach Mark Daigneault publicly apologized to Hartenstein for playing him just 12 minutes in Game 1 (he then played 18 in Game 4), but the spacing concerns are real.
Hartenstein is a talented center that is an underrated screen setter, passer and cutter, but against a Spurs defense seeking to channel actions toward the middle of the floor, it’s been a tough task trying to generate decent shots. Consider this: with both Hartenstein and Holmgren on the floor, Oklahoma City’s shot quality is equivalent to Sacramento’s regular-season output (not great), it’s taking 3s at a rate less than the aforementioned Kings and it has an effective field goal (and true shooting) percentage of 40%.
It gets even worse when you consider the Thunder’s availability issues. Oklahoma City has been lauded for its depth all year and rightfully so, but recent injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell have forced others to the surface in ways they may not have anticipated prior to the series. Those ghastly Holmgren/Hartenstein numbers get even worse with Cason Wallace being inserted into the starting lineup, their net rating plummeting to a -61.9 and their rim protection worsening by nearly 12%.
Is there a fix?
Similar to last year’s playoffs, Daigneault’s best bet might be to separate the two. So far, it’s worked when the Thunder have either Holmgren (+15.4 in net rating) on the floor without Hartenstein as well as the inverse (+17 with Hartenstein and no Holmgren).
There’s also the glaring fact that Holmgren, who was recently named to the All-NBA Third Team, isn’t playing at that level. In the conference finals, the 24-year-old is averaging just 11.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and less than a block a game on 47/33/75 shooting splits. (Defensively, he’s contested the most shots around the rim in the conference finals to date, with opponents converting just 42.9% of shots, a more impressive mark than Victor Wembanyama and a more drastic on/off switch.)
In Game 4, Holmgren shot just 2-of-5 from the field with Wembanyama on the floor and simply doesn’t look like the confident, versatile unicorn that has been a staple of the Thunder’s success. Figuring out how to best involve him and extract All-NBA performances (or at least close to it at this point) even appeared to stump the reigning MVP for a moment.
This got me crying bro pic.twitter.com/fsIIwYk37K
— kingtisemedia (@kingtisemedia) May 25, 2026
“Chet’s an easy target to find,” Gilgeous-Alexander said after a long pause. “So, probably just find him more in the dunker or when he's spacing. Just put him in better positions to use his strengths as an offensive talent.
“I don’t know exactly what that looks like — I just got done playing — but watching film, we’ll find ways for sure.”
Getting Williams back for Game 5 — he’s listed as questionable — would return some much-needed inside-out balance to their starting lineup and could justify the continued run of the Holmgren/Hartenstein frontcourt. But in a series dictated by chess moves and to-the-second adjustments, the Thunder could use a jolt.