Strength of schedule became a hot topic of conversation last NFL season.
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Most of it centered around the New England Patriots, and it even seeped into the MVP race like it never had before. The Patriots played the easiest schedule in the NFL last season, and the easiest schedule this century. It was the third-easiest schedule by DVOA since 1978, according to Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy. Only the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams had easier schedules. The Patriots went 14-3 and made the Super Bowl. The schedule, and the chatter about it through December, might have been a factor in Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford narrowly edging out New England’s Drake Maye for NFL MVP.
Now that strength of schedule has become a hot topic among NFL fans, it’s worth looking at which teams have advantages and disadvantages heading into 2026.
Which team has the easiest strength of schedule?
The traditional way of looking at schedule strength is through the cumulative 2025 record of 2026 opponents. By that measure, the Cleveland Browns have landed the easiest schedule in the NFL, via the league. That’s largely due to drawing the NFC South as its opponents (the NFL rotates inter-conference foes by division each season). The NFC South didn’t have a winning team last season, which helps the Browns’ schedule. The cumulative winning percentage of the Browns’ 17 opponents this season was .429 last season. The Saints and Bengals have the second and third easiest schedules by that measure.
Before the full schedule is released, take a look at each team's strength of schedule for 2026. 👀
— NFL (@NFL) May 11, 2026
📺: NFL Schedule Release - Thursday at 8pm ET on ESPN/NFLN pic.twitter.com/eChBp3QMVa
Last season’s records don’t always accurately reflect how teams change over the offseason. Teams that were bad last season might have changed coaches or added a lot of talent through free agency or the draft. The Titans and Raiders are two good examples for this season. A new way of looking at strength of schedule was developed by Warren Sharp of SharpFootballAnalysis.com, and it looks at the win totals set by bookmakers of all 17 opponents for each team. Last season the Raiders won three games and this season they are projected for 5.5 wins by oddsmakers; that roster improvement is reflected in Sharp’s rankings.
Using the win total metric, the Browns have the fourth-easiest schedule. It’s the Detroit Lions who jump up to the easiest schedule in the NFL. They’re followed by the Saints and Bengals, who had the same spots in easiest schedules when using last year’s records, then there’s a significant gap to the Browns.
That’s a pretty big deal for the Lions, who missed the playoffs last season. Playing the easiest schedule in the NFL last season wasn’t the only reason the Patriots improved 10 wins from the season before, but it certainly helped.
Which team has the toughest schedule?
The Chicago Bears are a regression candidate this season, and the schedule is a reason. Using last season’s records, the Bears have the toughest schedule in the NFL. The combined 2025 record of this season’s opponents is .550. The schedule is easier using sportsbooks’ win totals as a guide, as Chicago drops to sixth toughest. Regardless of method, it will be tougher than last season.
On paper, Caleb Williams and the Bears face a tougher schedule than they did in 2025. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)Michael Reaves via Getty ImagesThe Arizona Cardinals are up against it again when it comes to the schedule. Last season the Cardinals had the toughest schedule in the NFL, according to DVOA. This season the Cardinals are projected to have the toughest schedule using win totals. Playing six games against the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers is rough, and their AFC match is the AFC West, which looks like the deepest division in that conference. For a Cardinals team that went 3-14 last season, it’s a tough draw.
Another team that isn’t projected to be very good and also got a difficult schedule is the Dolphins. They have the second toughest schedule based on win totals and last year’s records. That’s a massive difference from last season, when Miami was tied for the third easiest schedule via DVOA.
What about the Patriots?
The Patriots will have a tougher road back to an AFC East title this season, but the schedule is still not too bad. Their schedule is sixth easiest based on last year’s records, and 12th easiest based on win totals.
The Patriots play nine games against playoff teams from last season: Bills twice, Broncos, Packers, Steelers, Bears, Jaguars, Chargers, Seahawks. They also have games against teams like the Lions and Chiefs, who didn’t make the playoffs last season but could bounce back in 2026.
Which teams have the biggest change from last season?
A big difference in schedule strength from year to year can matter to a team’s results. The Dolphins, going from tied for third easiest to second toughest, is the biggest difference. Here are the other notable differences (using DVOA from last season and win totals via Warren Sharp for this season):
Much easier in 2026:
Ravens: No. 12 toughest to No. 6 easiest
Lions: No. 14 toughest to No. 1 easiest
Colts: No. 5 toughest to No. 9 easiest
49ers: No. 6 toughest to No. 8 easiest
Titans: No. 2 toughest to 13th easiest
Much tougher in 2026:
Bears: No. 7 easiest to No. 6 toughest
Cowboys: No. 5 easiest to No. 4 toughest