Atlanta — Make no mistake, Tarik Skubal is still doing Tarik Skubal-like things on the mound.
He enters his start against the Braves Wednesday night with a sub-1 WHIP and a sub-3 ERA. He’s limiting hitters to a .589 OPS with minimal slug (.328). And he's been triggering no-hit watches in his last four starts:
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▶ Eleven straight outs to start the game against the Brewers.
▶ Four no-hit innings against the Red Sox.
▶ No-hitter into the sixth inning against the Marlins.
▶ Four scoreless innings against the Twins.
But — there’s always a but — with the exception of the Marlins start, the others didn’t end like Skubal would like. Against the Brewers, he lost a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning.
It’s not an issue. It’s not a concern. It’s just curious. Opponents are hitting .433 with a 1.104 OPS against him the third time through the order. His OPS against from pitches 76-100 is 1.095.
“I hate to write things off as unlucky when there’s something to learn from it,” Skubal said Tuesday. “But, like in that seventh inning, those hits ... I’m doing my job suppressing contact.”
True. The Brewers parlayed a pop fly behind second base, 73-mph exit velocity, that landed in front of Matt Vierling and Wenceel Perez, an 82.7-mph seeing-eye single and a sharply-struck double into a three-run rally.
“I don’t put much stock into, honestly,” he said. “If we field a bunt and get outs. If they hit a ground ball four feet to the left, it’s an out. If I replay that seventh inning and execute the way I did, I probably get three outs more often than not and I’m going back out for the eighth.”
He’s not been hit hard. His hard-hit rate is 39.2%. The average exit velocity on balls put in play against him is 88.8 mph. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 1.97.
“My numbers are pretty much in line with what I’ve been doing,” he said. “My underlying numbers are very good, too. But I’ve looked at things. I’ve looked at different pitch selections. But I’m not going to make an excuse about it. Suppressing contact the way I have has been really positive.”
Skubal came out of that Brewers game feeling like it was the best he’s thrown the baseball all season, regardless of what the stat line might look like.
“Am I going to chase a stat line or am I going to chase process,” he said. “I’ve always chased process and I’ve been pretty good at it ... I would love to sit here and say I’m perfect. But that’s impossible. But I can chase things like mentally trying to execute pitch after pitch. I think I’m doing a good job of that.
“There are a lot of things that happen that are out of my control after that.”
It’s better to be good than lucky. But Skubal might be due for a little dash of luck, just the same.
Tigers at Braves
▶ First pitch: 7:15 p.m. Wednesday, Truist Park, Atlanta
▶ TV/radio: Detroit Sports Net, 97.1.
Scouting report
▶ LHP Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.72), Tigers: It’s too soon to make any binding judgments about this, it’s just peculiar. Skubal comes out in no-hit mode just about every start: 11 straight outs against the Brewers, no-hitter through four at Boston, no-hitter through 5.2 innings against the Marlins, four scoreless at Minnesota. But the back end of starts have been rougher. Opponents third time seeing Skubal are hitting .433 with a 1.104 OPS. Hitters seeing him on pitches 76-100 have an OPS of 1.095. His career numbers (.676 OPS third time through, .637 after 76 pitches) suggests this is an anomaly.
▶ RHP JR Ritchie (1-0, 2.57), Braves: The 22-year-old first-round pick in 2022, had an impactful Major League debut Thursday, limiting the Nationals to two runs (two solo homers) with seven strikeouts over seven innings. Against a lefty-heavy lineup, he effectively used a slow curveball off a 94-mph four-seam fastball. He also has a changeup, slider, cutter and sinker in his took lit. He had allowed just three earned runs in 27.1 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett before getting called up.
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This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Tarik Skubal's underlying stats are good but could use a bit of luck