Barring West Bengal, where the second phase of polling will take place on April 29, assembly elections 2026 are almost done with. Held amid the controversy and concerns over phase 2 of the SIR, which has resulted in the deletion of 7.2 crore voters in 12 states and Union territories, the results of elections in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam, and West Bengal will have a bearing on political parties and their leaders—both state and national. In the high-stakes battle of ideologies, political power, ambition, welfare schemes, and freebie promises, the outcome of these elections is expected to redraw the contours of political competition in the country, as their importance extends to national politics.
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For the BJP, the five assembly elections will determine whether the saffron party continues to dominate political influence and ideological discourse—both at the national and state levels. For the Congress, the elections are a crucial test whether it can stand on its own or continue to remain hitched to regional allies. In Assam and Kerala, the grand old party is a challenger to the BJP and the Left Democratic Front, respectively. In West Bengal, the Congress has decided to go solo, while in Tamil Nadu it is a junior partner to the DMK. The principal dilemma before the Congress is whether to remain subordinate to regional parties or fight it out alone in future elections. The results of these elections will show whether the Congress is able to redefine its relationship with regional parties.
Given the Opposition’s failure to capitalise on the BJP’s reduced majority in the 2024 general elections during subsequent assembly polls, the outcome of the 2026 assembly polls will have a direct bearing on setting the narrative for future electoral battles, particularly the Uttar Pradesh election in March 2027 and the 2029 general election. In election management, the BJP is considered superior due to a combination of factors: cadre-based organisational structure, charismatic leadership, advanced data analytics, booth-level management, massive financial resources, and the ability to combine developmental narrative with ideological messaging, irrespective of the SIR. Ideally, nobody should have a problem with periodic cleansing of electoral rolls.
But the current SIR, which is yet to be completed in West Bengal, remains a key point of contention because of its diverging rules and methodology from the 2002 exercise. It created problems in Bihar and is a huge problem in West Bengal. If one of the key objectives of the exercise is to delete non-citizens from electoral rolls, there is little data about how many non-citizens have been identified from the SIR so far. The Election Commission (EC) has been silent on this crucial point, which exacerbates the trust deficit between the EC and political parties, as well as between the poll body and voters over the intent behind the mammoth exercise. The outcome of the assembly elections on May 4, therefore, will be seen from the prism of SIR as well as the recent controversy over the defeat of the Constitutional Amendment Bill for 33 per cent women’s reservation in Parliament and state assemblies.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, the elections are strategic—a test of whether the momentum of their decade-long political supremacy is intact or withering away. Some political experts believe that strategically, a defeat for the BJP in the four states and one Union territory will make little difference. The logic behind this thinking is that politically nothing changes for the saffron party even if it loses in Assam and West Bengal; in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, it should remain content with a mere increase in vote share. However, a defeat in Assam would certainly be a big setback for the party because it is the BJP’s power centre in the Northeast. Moreover, a loss in West Bengal once again would be a major blow to the party after investing enormous political capital in the state over the last decade.
Since its big electoral breakthrough in the 2019 general election, the BJP has emerged a major political force in Bengal but has remained unsuccessful in wresting power from Mamata Banerjee. From three seats and around 10 per cent vote share in 2016, the BJP’s emergence as the main Opposition party in Bengal in 2021 with 77 seats and 39 per cent vote share was an achievement. But it was also a disappointment because of its struggle to translate its organisational strength, Modi popularity, and central intervention and patronage into a decisive victory. The question is whether the BJP will finally succeed in unseating Mamata’s Trinamool Congress, which is aiming for a fourth consecutive term. Reports from the ground suggest that the BJP is once again headed for another disappointment.
Uttar Pradesh: Birthday Boy Opens Fire Over Cake-Smearing Row, 3 Friends Killed In BulandshahrThere is little doubt that Modi’s persistent political outreach in the south is slowly paying back in terms of vote share for the BJP. Barring Karnataka, it is still a long distance away from the seat of power in other southern states. But in Tamil Nadu, where a strong fight is expected between the two alliances led by the DMK and the AIADMK, the BJP is hoping to potentially breach the Dravidian fortress with the help of its alliance with the AIADMK. But media reports and opinion polls suggest MK Stalin and his party are likely to retain power. Kerala, on the other hand, is a difficult political terrain for the BJP. It is an entrenched stronghold of the Congress and the Left Front. In Puducherry, the ruling NDA alliance is expected to retain power, reinforcing the BJP’s presence in the Union territory.
Retaining Assam, improving its seat tally to around 100 seats in Bengal, holding Puducherry, and making tangible gains in Tamil Nadu and Kerala would be seen as a favourable outcome for the BJP. On the other hand, a poor Congress performance in Assam and Kerala will weaken its bargaining power against dominant regional parties in future elections. However, a Congress victory in Kerala and an improved performance in Assam will restore a measure of credibility and hope for the beleaguered party. It will help the Congress check the rising influence of dominant regional parties and non-Congress opposition. Ground reports suggest Assam and West Bengal are likely to see continuity of power for incumbent parties, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu indicate more competitive contests.
The writer is a senior independent Mumbai-based journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule