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Nikola Jokić vs. Rudy Gobert and the domino effect that has the Nuggets in danger. Is Denver done?

· Yahoo Sports

Nikola Jokić is playing the worst series of his entire NBA career.

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This is not a hot take. Through three games, Jokić’s jumper has betrayed him, his two-man game with Jamal Murray has stalled, Rudy Gobert has contained him in the paint, and his defense isn’t getting stops.

The Nuggets are down 2-1 and on the road in Minnesota for a pivotal Game 4. How did we get here? One domino at a time.

Five-for-24. That's Jokić's line from beyond the arc so far against Minnesota. This isn’t just a little three-game cold stretch either.

After Jokić returned in January from his 16-game absence thanks to a hyperextended knee, his 3-pointer didn’t come back with him. Jokić shot 44% from 3 prior to the injury, comparable to his 42% last season. But since he got back: 32% during the season, and now just 21% through three games of the playoffs. Blame the rust, blame the rhythm, blame the knee — the diagnosis doesn't really matter. The shot is gone.

The Timberwolves are basically daring Jokić to shoot 3s, having Gobert back off him and stay in the paint before closing back out short. And Jokić is giving the Wolves what they want by chucking away.

Minnesota’s ability to sag off Jokić has effectively neutralized the normally lethal actions involving Jokić and Murray.

Murray’s defender can fight over the screen to prevent him from taking clean 3s. He’s making only 22% of his 3s in the series. And since Gobert is in the paint, Murray has nowhere to drive. He’s making only 31% of his shots in the paint with Jokić on the floor, down from 56% during the season.

Since Jokić is being given more space on the perimeter, Murray has less room to operate. And as a result, Murray and Jokić are generating only 0.96 points per handoff, and only 0.93 points per pick-and-rolls — their worst marks since 2018-19 against the Spurs. That was their first playoff series together.

With Jokić struggling on the perimeter, the inside hasn't been a refuge for him either. Jokić is shooting only 44% inside the arc with Gobert as the closest defender.

Gobert is showing why he’s a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, living in Jokić’s airspace with his 7-foot-9 wingspan meeting him at the rim on every drive. Even when the Nuggets run Jokić through screens as an attempt to spring him open, Gobert is effectively sticking to him and preventing easy scoring chances.

Jokić seems spooked. Throughout the series, he has made some uncharacteristic, sloppy decisions, passing the ball out of situations in which he’d normally shoot. Most notably at the end of Game 2 when he had a floater but opted to pass to Christian Braun, who got fouled and missed both free throws.

This is happening despite the fact that Minnesota isn’t doubling Jokić. If Gobert alone can effectively guard Jokić, then passing windows will continue to shut a lot sooner than the Nuggets are used to.

The Nuggets are posting a 107.4 offensive rating in the half-court — down from their scorching 122 rating during the season. 

Minnesota is getting more looks on the break: 14.7% of its offensive plays come in transition. That’d rank fifth-highest in the league over a full season. Denver ranked fifth-lowest. Sometimes your best defense is your best offense, and right now Denver’s offensive struggles are hurting the defense.

But even in the half-court, the Nuggets’ defense is struggling. Braun got paid $125 million this offseason and can’t contain dribble penetration. Peyton Watson is out with a hamstring strain. Aaron Gordon missed Game 3 with a calf injury and wasn’t himself before that either. And Jokić’s defensive struggles have carried over from the regular season.

Jokić was a far more impactful defender in each of his three MVP seasons, and better last year too. The hyperextended knee may have sapped the agility he needed to change directions in tight spaces. Right now, he looks like the younger, heavier version of himself who gave drivers a free lane to the rim.

Jaden McDaniels said after Game 2 that the Nuggets have all bad defenders. He listed Jokić first. So far, Jokić is proving him right.

Right now, Jokić and head coach David Adelman are giving Minnesota exactly what it wants: Jokić 3-pointers. Meanwhile, they’ve forgotten the post. Jokić averaged 7.2 post-ups per game during the season. That has fallen to only 15 total through three games. Maybe using the post more wouldn’t work — Gobert has bothered Jokić everywhere else — but it’s worth a try. In past series against Gobert, Jokić post-ups have generated 1.2 points per play. That dwarfs anything else Denver is running right now.

Jokić and Gobert have been colliding since 2020 with two seven-game series, a five-game series, and our current battle. On paper, the arc has mostly bent Jokić's way. He outlasted Gobert's Jazz in the 2020 bubble. He dismissed Gobert's Wolves in five in 2023. Even when Minnesota took the 2024 semis in seven, a defining image of that series was Game 5 — on the night Jokić accepted his third MVP, he torched the Wolves for 40 points, 13 assists, and zero turnovers. Anthony Edwards said afterward: “I just laugh. That's all I can do.”

While the series wins belong to Jokić, the possessions, quietly, belong to Gobert. Through 21 career playoff games between them, Gobert is a +63 in his on-court minutes. Jokić is a -6. So maybe what's happening now isn't a flip. Maybe the scoreboard is catching up.

You can still believe in Jokić, and I do, but it’s impossible not to look at these games and feel the floor shifting. He looks like a shell of himself. His running mates are banged up. Gobert looks better than ever. Maybe this is just Minnesota’s year, and maybe that’s all there is to it.

The Nuggets can still win this series. Just not like this. The cleanest path back for Jokić may not be to go find his jumper. It may be to stop taking it.

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