The redistricting war President Trump forced on his party appears to have backfired. With Virginia's vote Tuesday, Republicans are now favored in fewer House seats than if the war had never started.
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Why it matters: Trump bet his slim House majority on a mid-decade redrawing frenzy. It's increasingly looking like a self-inflicted wound, leaving Republicans with long-shot hopes of any major rewards.
- While House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and his caucus celebrate their "[m]aximum warfare" win, a Florida showdown and pending Supreme Court decision give Republicans scant hopes to stanch the bleeding.
Between the lines: One way to measure the change is by overlaying the last two presidential elections on the old and new maps across the seven states that redrew lines.
- Using 2024 results, Kamala Harris would have carried six more seats than before redistricting, per an Axios analysis of data from Dave's Redistricting and the Redistricting Data Hub.
- Using 2020 results, Joe Biden would have carried two more.
By the numbers: Virginia's new map could shift its delegation from 6–5 to 10–1 for Dems.
- The prospect of snagging up to four blue seats adds to redistricting pickups in California, where Dems could flip five, and Utah, now home to another more Democratic seat.
- Republican redistricting efforts, on the other hand, aim to grab up to five new seats in Texas, two in Ohio, one in North Carolina and one in Missouri.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball rates 217 districts as at least leaning Democratic, 205 as at least leaning Republican and 13 as toss-ups after Virginia's vote.
What's next: Florida legislators will return to Tallahassee later this month for a delayed special session, making the state the last major battleground.
- But the prospects for Gov. Ron DeSantis' state successfully putting forward a new map are cloudy.
- Recent Democratic special election wins have deepened GOP fears that new lines could put safe Republican seats in play.
Reality check: Neither party is guaranteed to win the seats these new maps put in play. What voters do in November will decide.
- In the 2018 midterms, votes swung 6.5 points toward Democrats vs. 2016, according to the Cook Political Report. But it's not 2018. There are far fewer competitive districts.
Courts could also shake up the results.
- The U.S. Supreme Court is poised to rule on a Louisiana case that could effectively dismantle a key tool for challenging racially discriminatory election maps.
- If the high court guts the Voting Rights Act, it could open the door to more than a dozen Republican-leaning districts in the South, Axios New Orleans' Chelsea Brasted reports.
- When the court rules could have a big impact. Federal law mandates states send overseas ballots 45 days before a primary, so the clock is ticking for states to redistrict. For some, that deadline has already passed.
The bottom line: Redrawing lines can significantly reduce competition and warp the political landscape.
- But voters' behavior — and court decisions — are never guaranteed.
Go deeper: Indiana rejection cuts into Trump's redistricting push