Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump's ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.
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The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn't know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced.
- U.S. forces in the Middle East and officials in the Pentagon spent those closing hours preparing for a massive bombing campaign on Iranian infrastructure, and trying to figure out where Trump was leaning. "We had no idea what was going to happen. It was wild," a defense official said.
- Allies in the region were bracing for Iranian retaliation on an unprecedented scale. Inside Iran, some civilians were fleeing their homes in an attempt to avoid the brunt of the strikes.
- This account of the diplomacy that staved off that escalation, for now, is based on conversations with eleven sources with knowledge of the talks.
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a "very angry" Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
- The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was "a disaster, a catastrophe," a source with direct knowledge said.
- That began a "chaotic" day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
- By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.
The intrigue: The involvement of the new supreme leader was necessarily clandestine and laborious. Facing an active threat of assassination by Israel, Khamenei has been communicating primarily via runners passing notes.
- Two sources described Khamenei's blessing for his negotiators to cut a deal as a "breakthrough."
- The regional source said Araghchi also played a central role both in handling the negotiations and in pushing commanders from the Revolutionary Guards to accept a deal.
- China was also advising Iran to seek an off-ramp.
- But at the end of the day, all major decisions on Monday and Tuesday went through Khamenei. "Without his green light, there wouldn't have been a deal," the regional source said.
How it happened: It was clear by Tuesday morning that progress was being made, but that didn't stop Trump from making his most harrowing threat: "A whole civilization will die tonight."
- Some U.S. media outlets reported Iran was breaking off talks in response. Sources involved in the negotiations told Axios that was not the case, and that there was actually some momentum.
- Vice President Vance was working the phones from Hungary, dealing primarily with the Pakistanis.
- Meanwhile Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in frequent contact throughout the day with Trump and his team — though the Israelis were growing increasingly concerned that they'd lost control of the process.
By around noon ET on Tuesday, there was a general understanding that the parties were converging on a two-week ceasefire.
- Three hours later, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif published the terms on X and called on both sides to accept.
- Trump immediately started getting calls and text messages from hawkish allies and confidants urging him to reject it.
- Such was the confusion around Trump's thinking even among his close associates, that multiple people who had spoken with Trump only an hour or two earlier still believed he would spurn the ceasefire offer — right up until he took it.
Shortly before posting his response, Trump spoke to Netanyahu to get his commitment to adhere to the ceasefire.
- He next spoke to Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir to close the deal.
- U.S. forces got the order to stand down 15 minutes after Trump's post.
- Araghchi followed up, stating that Iran would adhere to the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz to vessels operating "in coordination with Iran's armed forces."
What to watch: It remains to be seen to what degree Iran will allow shipping to resume, or how steadfast Netanyahu will be in his adherence to the ceasefire.
- A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu had received assurances the U.S. would insist in peace talks that Iran give up its nuclear material, cease enrichment, and abandon its ballistic missile threat.
- Vance is likely to lead the U.S. delegation at talks planned for Friday in Pakistan — easily the most consequential assignment of his political career.
- There are still major gaps between the U.S. and Iranian visions for a deal, leaving the very real possibility the war will resume.
What's next: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt are both expected to give press conferences on Wednesday lambasting those who criticized Trump's vows to annihilate Iran.
- They'll argue Trump's threats made a deal possible.
- The Iranian regime, which has been making precisely the opposite argument, may wonder if Trump's threats are entirely over.