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Wars are rarely lost first on the battlefield. They are lost in leaders’ minds − when leaders misread what they and their adversaries can do, when their confidence substitutes for comprehension, and when the last war is mistaken for the next one.
The Trump administration’s miscalculation of Iran is not an anomaly. It is the latest entry in one of the oldest and most lethal traditions in international politics: the catastrophic gap between what leaders believe going in and what war actually delivers.
I’m a scholar of international security, civil wars and US foreign policy, and author of the book Dying by the Sword which examines why the United States repeatedly reaches for military solutions and why such interventions rarely produce durable peace. The deeper problem with the US war in Iran, as I see it, was overconfidence bred by recent success.
Dismissed concerns
Before the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the US escalated, Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed concerns about oil market disruption, noting that prices had barely moved during the 12-day war in June 2025 between Israel and Iran. Other senior officials agreed.
What followed was significant: Iranian-aimed missile and drone barrages against US bases, Arab capitals and Israeli population centers. Then Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil...