The Pentagon is developing military options for a "final blow" in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, according to two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge.
Visit biznow.biz for more information.
Why it matters: A dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks and, in particular, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Some U.S. officials think a crushing show of force to conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory.
Between the lines: Iran also has a say in how the war ends, and many of the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion.
Zoom in: In interviews with Axios, officials and sources familiar with the internal discussions describe four major "final blow" options Trump could choose from:
- Invading or blockading Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub.
- Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic outpost hosts Iranian bunkers, attack craft that can blow up cargo ships and radars that monitor movements in the strait.
- Seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE.
- Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait.
The intrigue: The U.S. military has also prepared plans for ground operations deep inside the interior of Iran to secure the highly enriched uranium buried within nuclear facilities.
- Instead of conducting such a complicated and risky operation, the U.S. could instead carry out large-scale air strikes on the facilities to try to prevent Iran from ever accessing the material.
Reality check: Trump hasn't made a decision yet on pursuing any of these scenarios, and White House officials describe any potential ground operations as "hypothetical."
- But sources say he's ready to escalate if talks with Iran don't yield tangible results soon.
- Trump could first implement his threat to bomb power plants and energy facilities in Iran, for which Tehran has threatened massive retaliation across the Gulf.
Driving the news: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned Iran on Wednesday that Trump is ready to strike "harder than ever before" if no deal can be reached.
- "The President doesn't bluff and he is ready to unleash hell. Iran shouldn't miscalculate again... any violence beyond this point will be because the Iranian regime... refuses to come to a deal," Leavitt said.
State of play: More reinforcements, including several fighter jet squadrons and thousands of troops, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days and weeks.
- One Marine expeditionary unit will arrive this week and another is now deploying.
- The command element of the 82nd Airborne Division has been directed to deploy to the Middle East with an infantry brigade consisting of several thousand troops.
The other side: Iranian officials have said they don't trust Trump's negotiation push and see it as a ruse to launch sneak attacks.
- Speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X on Wednesday that Iranian intelligence suggests "Iran's enemies, with the support of a country in the region, are preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran's islands."
- Ghalibaf was likely alluding to the UAE and its claim to Abu Musa.
- "All enemy movements are under the surveillance of our armed forces. If they take any action, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will be targeted without limitation by relentless attacks," he added.
What to watch: A source involved in the efforts to launch negotiations between the U.S. and Iran said Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are still trying to organize a meeting between the parties.
- The source said that while Iran rejected the initial U.S. list of demands, it did not rule out negotiations altogeher.
- "But mistrust is the problem. The commanders of the IRGC are very skeptical," the source said, referring to the powerful Iranian military force. "But the mediators haven't given up."
Go deeper: Trump rebuffed Netanyahu idea to call for Iran uprising