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March Madness: Re-ranking the men's Sweet 16 by championship potential

· Yahoo Sports

Last November, 365 Division I men’s college basketball teams began the season with dreams of advancing to the NCAA tournament’s second week.

The 16 still alive all have one thing in common: They each hail from a power conference.

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Six are from the Big Ten, raising the possibility that league could finally end its 26-year national title drought. Four are from the SEC, though regular season champion Florida surprisingly is not among them. Three are from the Big 12. UConn and St. John’s hail from the Big East. And Duke is the ACC’s lone team left standing.

Thirteen of the 16 remaining teams are No. 5 seeds or better, but even this historically chalky NCAA tournament did produce some surprises. Nebraska is playing in its first-ever Sweet 16. Iowa and St. John’s haven’t been since 1999. Ten of the 16 remaining teams have never won the NCAA tournament. 

Who has a chance to climb ladders and cut down the nets in Indianapolis? Here’s a look at how I’d rank this year’s Sweet 16 from most likely to least likely to win the national championship:

How they got here: Defeated Howard (16), Saint Louis (9)

Up next: Alabama (4)

Outlook: What makes Michigan so lethal is more than just its positional size. The Wolverines overwhelm opponents because of how seamlessly their pieces fit together. Over the course of 12 days last spring, Dusty May assembled a title contender via the transfer portal, adding skilled 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara; rim runner, rebounder and interior defender Morez Johnson; do-it-all 6-9 forward Yaxel Lendeborg; and pass-first playmaker Elliot Cadeau. That quartet has carried the Wolverines to 33 wins, including routs of Howard and Saint Louis to open NCAA tournament play. “You see a lot of teams that are poorly constructed that pay a lot of money for their teams,” Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz said Saturday. “Dusty's teams, the pieces really fit well.”

Will Yaxel Lendeborg and the Wolverines be advancing Michigan to the Final Four next weekend? (Bjorn Franke/Getty Images)Bjorn Franke via Getty Images

How they got here: Defeated LIU (16), Utah State (9)

Up next: Arkansas (4)

Outlook: Arizona blew away overmatched LIU and overcame pesky Utah State. Now comes the hard part. Twelve times since 2001, Arizona advanced to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend. Five times, the Wildcats made the Elite Eight. Each trip ended in heartbreak, from a near miss against Kansas in 2003, to Illinois’ stunning 15-point comeback in 2005, to Jamelle Horne’s game-winning 3-pointer rimming out against UConn in 2011, to back-to-back narrow losses to Frank Kaminsky and Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015. Can this year’s Arizona team ride its balanced scoring and ferocious interior defense to the program’s first Final Four in a quarter century? Anything less would be a disappointment.

How they got here: Defeated Idaho (15), Texas A&M (10)

Up next: Illinois (3)

Outlook: There was never any doubt that Houston was going to seize the opportunity to play in a South regional less than three miles from its campus. The Cougars won their first two NCAA tournament games by 30-plus points, joining 1998 Arizona, 1999 Duke and 2008 North Carolina as teams who have achieved that feat. Now the question is whether playing close to home can help Houston get through the likes of Illinois and either Florida or Nebraska to advance to another Final Four. This year’s Cougars aren’t quite the defensive juggernaut that Sampson’s previous teams have been, but their mix of proven veterans and heralded freshmen make them one of the five biggest threats in this NCAA tournament field to win six games.

How they got here: Defeated Siena (16), TCU (9)

Up next: St. John’s (5)

Outlook: While surprisingly vulnerable Duke survived a major scare against 16th-seeded Siena and struggled to put away TCU for 30 minutes, the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament wasn’t all bad for the Blue Devils. The return of center Patrick Nnongba from injury should help Duke unleash the best version of Cam Boozer. It’s no surprise that Duke’s vaunted defense is most stifling when Boozer defends opposing power forwards and cedes rim-protection duties to Nnongba. What’s more interesting is that Boozer’s 2-point field goal percentage increases by 9%, per CBB Analytics, when Nnongba is on the floor with him. They complement one another well and have obvious chemistry, as shown by plays like this one. 

How they got here: Defeated North Dakota State (14), Louisville (6)

Up next: UConn (2)

Outlook: Michigan State point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. says his favorite thing about passing “is seeing my other teammates score and the joy and the excitement it brings them.” As the nation’s assists leader puts it, “If they’re happy, I’m happy.” Fears has had a lot of happy teammates this season as he has emerged as the engine and primary playmaker for a Michigan State attack ranked sixth nationally since March 1, per Bart Torvik’s T-rankings. Fears dished out 16 assists Saturday against Louisville, the most by a Big Ten player in an NCAA tournament game in the past 50 years. The all-Big Ten selection now has a ridiculous 27 assists in two NCAA tournament games. 

How they got here: Defeated Furman (15), UCLA (7)

Up next: Michigan State (3)

Outlook: Why was UConn able to put away UCLA on Sunday night despite getting a combined two points out of Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr.? Because Alex Karaban isn’t ready for his storied college career to end. The two-time national champ put the Huskies on his back, piling up a career-high 27 points on everything from spot-up 3-pointers, to driving layups, to put-backs through contact. UConn coach Dan Hurley went out of his way to highlight Karaban during his introductory remarks to the media after the game. “This man’s greatness and what he’s done in college basketball for four years, literally every outlet should be doing a story,” Hurley said. “No one has been better in college sports the past four years in terms of being a winner.”

How they got here: Defeated Northern Iowa (12), Kansas (4)

Up next: Duke (1)

Outlook: It didn’t matter to Dylan Darling that he was in the midst of a massive shooting slump or that he had missed all four shots he’d taken. The St. John’s guard still wanted to call his own number with Sunday’s second-round matchup against Kansas on the line. “Run power,” Darling told Rick Pitino, referring to a high back-screen pick-and-roll. Pitino agreed and then thought to himself, “Wait a second, he hasn’t scored a bucket and he wants to run a play for himself.” The confidence of Darling paid off in a big way for the Johnnies. His driving layup as the final horn sounded secured a 67-65 victory that sent his team to its first Sweet 16 since 1999. “To be honest, the ball left my hands and I hit the ground, and I didn't even see the ball go in,” Darling said. “I just heard everybody going crazy.”

Rick Pitino and St. John's are moving on to Washington D.C. for the East regional next weekend. (Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images)Jamie Schwaberow via Getty Images

How they got here: Defeated Queens (15), Miami (7)

Up next: Texas (11)

Outlook: Purdue did not live up to expectations during the regular season, but the Boilermakers seem to have regained their swagger since the postseason began. They won four games in four days at the Big Ten tournament, toppling Michigan in the title game. Then they overwhelmed Queens in their NCAA tournament opener and handled a Miami team with the sort of wing athletes that often give Purdue trouble. One concern for Purdue heading into the West regional is the health of guard CJ Cox, a knock-down shooter and the Boilermakers’ best on-ball defender. Cox went down against Miami with what Matt Painter described as a hyperextended knee. When asked if Cox would play against Texas next week, Painter said, “We'll kind of see how treatment goes and everything to see what his status is.”

How they got here: Defeated Tennessee State (15), Kentucky (7)

Up next: Tennessee (6)

Outlook: So much for Iowa State being vulnerable against Kentucky without All-American Joshua Jefferson. The Cyclones weathered an ice-cold shooting start from behind the arc, pulling ahead by halftime and extending their second-half advantage to as much as 23 points. Now the question is whether Jefferson’s sprained left ankle will heal quickly enough for him to be able to play against Tennessee next week. Jefferson has an MRI scheduled for Monday morning, according TJ Otzelberger. The 6-9 senior is holding out hope that last Friday’s first-round victory over Tennessee State wasn’t his final game in a Cyclones jersey. He told the Associated Press, “Knowing that I have a chance Friday to try to get back healthy and get back out there is huge for me.” 

How they got here: Defeated Penn (14), VCU (11)

Up next: Houston (2)

Outlook: Could this finally be the year that the Big Ten ends its 26-year title drought? The conference certainly has to feel optimistic about its chances after sending a Big Ten-record six teams to the Sweet 16. The litmus test for whether Illinois is a true national title contender this season will arrive Thursday when the Illini roll into Houston to face the Cougars 2.5 miles from their campus. That will be a showdown between one of college basketball’s most potent offenses this season and a disruptive defense that forces turnovers, blocks shots and gives up nothing easy at the rim.

How they got here: Defeated Hofstra (13), Texas Tech (5)

Up next: Michigan (1)

Outlook: Perhaps we were a little premature burying Alabama after its second-leading scorer was arrested on felony drug charges the morning after Selection Sunday. The Crimson Tide didn’t skip a beat without Aden Holloway’s scoring, playmaking and 43.8% 3-point shooting. Neither of Alabama’s opening-weekend opponents put any real game pressure on the Crimson Tide. Alabama pulled away from Hofstra for a 90-70 first-round win and then opened a 24-point halftime lead over Texas Tech en route to another blowout. Senior guard Latrell Wrightsell stepped up the most in Holloway’s absence, tallying 24 points against Texas Tech. The Tide will need Wrightsell and other role players to stay hot from behind the arc to pose a serious threat to Michigan next week.

How they got here: Defeated Troy (13), Vanderbilt (5)

Up next: Florida (1)

Outlook: Nebraska didn’t just shed the inglorious label of the only power-conference program never to win an NCAA tournament game. The Huskers also outlasted Vanderbilt by the slimmest possible margin to secure a spot in their first Sweet 16. Trailing by two and needing a miracle to stave off elimination, Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner let fly from beyond mid-court. Tanner’s aim looked true until the ball caromed off the backboard, spun all the way round the rim and bounced out. "When that thing was up in the air, I was like, 'Oh, man, that's going in," Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg recalled. His son also assumed the worst. Said point guard Sam Hoiberg, "I think it took me half a second to register that it didn't go in.”

How they got here: Defeated Hawaii (13), High Point (12)

Up next: Arizona (1)

Outlook: Point guard Darius Acuff is Arkansas’ offensive catalyst, a dynamic scorer, unselfish playmaker and ruthless closer. The freshman phenom has raised his scoring average to 30.2 points in five postseason games, leading Arkansas to the SEC tournament title and a fifth Sweet 16 in the past six years. Acuff unleashed the best version of himself in Saturday’s closing minutes after High Point tied the score at 83. The projected lottery pick scored a pair of driving layups, then finished off the tournament’s lone remaining Cinderella with a cold-blooded 3. While Arkansas’ olé defense could be its undoing moving forward, the offensive formula isn’t complicated. As John Calipari puts it, “We play it through Darius and he just makes plays.”

How they got here: Defeated Miami Ohio (11), Virginia (3)

Up next: Iowa State (2)

Outlook: Time to retire all your misguided social media memes about Rick Barnes falling short of expectations in the NCAA tournament. Tennessee is back in the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight season, an active streak that only Alabama and Houston can match or exceed. A Vols team that squandered five double-digit leads this season appeared to be in danger of letting a nine-point second-half lead against Virginia slip away on Sunday. The Cavaliers edged in front in the closing minutes before Tennessee came up with a string of defensive stops, turned a few of those into buckets and went 9-for-10 from the free throw line down the stretch to secure an all-important win.

How they got here: Defeated NC State (11), BYU (6), Gonzaga (3)

Up next: Purdue (2)

Outlook: Who says this NCAA tournament is lacking a charming underdog story? Plucky upstart Texas has come to the rescue! An underachieving Longhorns team that barely snuck into the field of 68 took advantage of the fresh start. They ripped off three victories in five days to become the sixth team to advance from the First Four to the Sweet 16 and the first since 2021 UCLA. Texas is the only double-digit seed still alive in this year’s NCAA tournament, but the Longhorns shouldn’t be discounted as a Final Four threat. Matas Vokietaitis has emerged as one of college basketball’s elite centers, he’s surrounded by an array of perimeter shotmakers and the Longhorns are peaking at the right time.

How they got here: Defeated Clemson (8), Florida (1)

Up next: Nebraska (4)

Outlook: With Iowa trailing top-seeded Florida by two and eight seconds to go in regulation, Alvaro Folgueiras knew the Hawkeyes needed a hero. The sharpshooting forward approached point guard Bennett Stirtz and promised him, “I'm going to be ready and I'm going to make it.” Those words were ringing in Stirtz’s ears moments later as he shed his defender, zoomed down court and saw Florida’s Thomas Haugh leave Folgueiras to help stop the basketball. Stirtz dished to Folgueiras spotted up in the corner. Folgueiras then drilled the game-winning 3-pointer, sending Iowa to its first Sweet 16 since 1999. “He’s got ultra confidence,” Stirtz said. “Irrational confidence,” Iowa coach Ben McCollum corrected him.  

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