Iowa women's basketball vs. Virginia prediction, 3 things to watch

IOWA CITY — After taking a second to breathe following its first-round affair that was tighter than anticipated, Iowa women's basketball is dialed back in on the next task at hand.

Other than the final score signaling a season still alive, the No. 2 seed Hawkeyes had few pretty moments in their 58-48 win over No. 15 seed FDU to open their NCAA Tournament journey on March 21. But that's in the past now — and it doesn't change the opportunities still very much in front of this youthful bunch trying to navigate through pressure and tension of March's main event.

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Up next is No. 10 seed Virginia on March 23 (1 p.m. CT, ESPN), which has camped out in Iowa City for nearly a week after a First Four win over Arizona State and an overtime victory over No. 7 seed Georgia. The Cavaliers' showdown against the Hawkeyes will end their Midwest marathon that'll see the Cavaliers play three games in five days.

Will that work to Iowa's advantage? Can the Hawkeyes snap and clear in time to keep their near meltdown in the past? Here are three things to watch for ahead of this second-round matinee.

First business, then nostalgia for Kylie Feuerbach and Hannah Stuelke in their final Carver-Hawkeye Arena game.

Both Kylie Feuerbach and Hannah Stuelke have watched several Iowa standouts deal with the emotional crossover of trying to advance to the Sweet 16 while soaking in the final time at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. In 2023, McKenna Warnock and Monika Czinano had to handle that with Iowa's second-round game against Georgia. The following year, Gabbie Marshall, Kate Martin and Caitlin Clark faced the same challenge against West Virginia.

Those days eventually reached a chance to positively reflect, as the Hawkeyes emerged victorious in both to advance out of their own building. But getting to that point was hardly an emotional breeze. Georgia and West Virginia gave their best shots at disrupting a nostalgic ending to several storied careers in Iowa City.

For now, the emotions are in check.

"I think I've done a good job at handling that aspect of it," said Feuerbach, who has been in the Iowa program for five seasons after transferring from Iowa State ahead of the 2021-22 campaign. "After the fact, it'll definitely be hard to process. But right now, it's good."

Stuelke's final game in Iowa City will come one day short of seven years since she committed to the Hawkeyes following their second-round win over Missouri in 2019. A fitting full-circle scenario, considering that season has come back into focus in that it also featured a first-round struggle like this one.

Stuelke tends to wear emotions on her sleeve a little more than Feuerbach does, so expect some tears to flow regardless of the outcome. That passion has fueled what's been a successful homegrown career.

"When the buzzer sounds, I'll get emotional," said Stuelke, a Cedar Rapids Washington alum. "But up until then, I've got a job to do. That's the most important thing for me right now."

With Kymora Johnson at the Virginia controls, can Iowa deliver another defensive clinic?

The FDU win moved Iowa to 4-1 this season when scoring fewer than 60 points, a record possible only with elite defensive consistency. Feuerbach has spearheaded a lot of that and will be asked to do so again at an elite level against the Cavaliers.

That's because junior guard Kymora Johnson can be a problem for those not ready to counter her consistent playmaking abilities. While Virginia's interior size and length pose their own challenges, it's Johnson who runs the show and can take any game over.

Many of Virginia's top showings this season have come with her delivering staggering stat lines. She poured in 29 points on 9-for-18 shooting in a double-digit home win over Notre Dame, went 15-for-20 from the field in a 41-point effort against Winthrop and kept Virginia's season alive with 28 points, seven rebounds and six assists in the second-round win over Georgia.

When asked if Johnson's game mirrored anything Feuerbach has faced this season, the sixth-year guard said she's a mix of Ohio State's Jaloni Cambridge and Indiana's Shay Ciezki. Two of the Big Ten's top scorers — but also two players Feuerbach prevented from completely taking over when Iowa beat the Hoosiers and Buckeyes.

"Not getting into early foul trouble is going to be really important," Feuerbach said. "Just using my length in whatever ways I can disrupting her. Not making any shot easy will be really important.

"But she's a really good player. She's going to be able to score. She plays pretty much 40 minutes the entire time. She doesn't get tired. She's probably going to be the most in-shape player we've played. A lot we have to bring to the table, but it's always nice to have a challenge like this, for sure."

Johnson has played 37-plus minutes in 13 consecutive games, a stretch that included playing every minute of a triple-overtime win over Wake Forest on Jan. 29. She also played every minute of a double-overtime win over Florida State on Jan. 4.

Chit-Chat Wright also will shoulder some of the defensive work on Johnson, who has played 83 of a possible 85 minutes in Iowa City. How much the Hawkeyes can disrupt her, even a little bit, will dictate a ton about how this second-round affair goes.

"I think you can't really get comfortable in the NCAA Tournament," Johnson said. "We're playing really good right now — clicking at the right time — but it's really important to stay even-keeled and not get too high or too low. I think we're doing that."

Will the awkward start time make a difference in any way?

Given Iowa's current status in the women's basketball landscape, an evening tip for the Hawkeyes' second-round game seemed inevitable. When Iowa got a Saturday/Monday setup as a host in 2024, the second-round game tipped at 7 p.m. CT.

Not the case this season. The 1 p.m. CT tip means Iowa-Virginia will be the second game of Monday's entire slate, creating a parking conundrum more than anything else given Carver-Hawkeye Arena's proximity to the University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics.

As for what the actual crowd will look like, it's fair to assume at this point Iowa fans will find a way around the late-developing inconvenience. Everyone who was asked about it on both sides anticipated an environment similar to Saturday's scene.

"I think 1 o'clock is a good time for us," Feuerbach said. "Getting a good little morning warmup, whatever we need to do, and then just getting right into the game will be really good. But whatever time it would've been — could've been a 10 a.m. game, 11 a.m. game — we would've been ready to go."

Iowa is 4-1 this season in games that started at 1 p.m. CT or earlier. Both of the Hawkeyes' wins over Nebraska — a Thursday afternoon home victory on New Year's Day and a Monday afternoon win on President's Day — carried unusual tip-off logistics similar to what Iowa will have against Virginia.

“I'm a big fan of the earlier slot," sophomore Taylor Stremlow said. "I'll play regardless and have fun, but I do like those earlier games.”