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Like Dolly Parton on a pogo stick, the 2026 NCAA Tournament is very top-heavy.
If the sky-rocketing analytics around this year’s higher seeds weren’t evidence enough, just check out the March Madness point spreads. There will be 19 double-digit favorites in the opening 32 games of the Big Dance.
What that means is that teams seeded No. 1 through No. 4 will cruise through to the second week of the tournament, while chaos will ensue in the mushy middle of the bracket.
My March Madness bracket predictions follow that path, advancing the chalkiest of the chalk while calling a handful of upsets early on. But when it comes down to business, the best of the best ascend to Indianapolis.
Jason Logan's March Madness Bracket for 2026
My best March Madness bracket picks
My Final Four has three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 heading to Indy, with Iowa State serving as the de facto Cinderella.
The Duke Blue Devils will take down the defending champion Florida Gators on one side of the semifinals, while the Arizona Wildcats edge the Iowa State Cyclones in the other.
My National Championship sees Arizona get the better of Duke. The Blue Devils are already dealing with health issues, and the grind of the NCAA games and travel could compound things.
- Round 1 Upsets: 6
- Sweet 16 Cinderallas: 2
No. 11 VCU
No. 14 Akron - Final Four:
No. 1 Duke vs No. 1 Florida
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 2 Iowa State - National Championship
No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Duke
East Region picks
There’s no denying Duke, even in what looks like the “Region of Death”. The Blue Devils are on another level, with No. 2 UConn and No. 3 Michigan State well off that pace. A potential run-in with No. 4 Kansas in the Sweet 16 should be fun.
RoundPickRound of 64Duke over SienaRound of 64TCU over Ohio StateRound of 64St. John's over Northern IowaRound of 64Kansas over Cal BaptistRound of 64Louisville over South FloridaRound of 64Michigan State over North Dakota StateRound of 64UCLA over UCFRound of 64UConn over FurmanRound of 32Duke over TCURound of 32Kansas over St. John'sRound of 32Louisville over Michigan StateRound of 32UCLA over UConnSweet 16Duke over KansasSweet 16UCLA over LouisvilleElite EightDuke over UCLAMidwest Region picks
Michigan is the only No. 1 seed I predict won’t make the trip to Indianapolis. The Wolverines were the most consistent team in an inconsistent Big Ten, and the offense was disjointed in the Big Ten tournament, which UM didn’t win. No. 2
Iowa State is battle-tested, both in non-conference competition and in Big 12 play.
RoundPickRound of 64Michigan over UMBC/HowardRound of 64Saint Louis over GeorgiaRound of 64Akron over Texas TechRound of 64Alabama over HofstraRound of 64Tennessee over Miami (OH)/SMURound of 64Virginia over Wright StateRound of 64Santa Clara over KentuckyRound of 64Iowa State over Tennessee StateRound of 32Michigan Over Saint LouisRound of 32Akron over AlabamaRound of 32Tennessee over VirginiaRound of 32Iowa State over Santa ClaraSweet 16Michigan over AkronSweet 16Iowa State over TennesseeElite EightIowa State Over MichiganSouth Region picks
We get a rematch of last year’s title game in the Elite Eight with Florida bouncing Houston once again. Behind those two programs, the rest of this region is weak. No. 3 Illinois, No. 4 Nebraska, and No. 5 Vanderbilt all run the risk of not seeing the second week of the tournament.
RoundPickRound of 64Florida over PV A&M/LehighRound of 64Clemson over IowaRound of 64Vanderbilt over McNeeseRound of 64Troy over NebraskaRound of 64VCU over North CarolinaRound of 64Illinois over PennRound of 64Saint Mary's over Texas A&MRound of 64Houston over IdahoRound of 32Florida over ClemsonRound of 32Vanderbilt over TroyRound of 32VCU over IllinoisRound of 32Houston over Saint Mary'sSweet 16Vanderbilt over FloridaSweet 16Houston over VCUElite EightFlorida over HoustonWest Region picks
Arizona advances but doesn’t have a smooth ride to the Final Four. There are booby traps abound for the Wildcats. You have Purdue and Arkansas, who are riding momentum into March Madness, and a Gonzaga program that knows how to win come tourney time.
RoundPickRound of 64Arizona over LIURound of 64Utah St over VillanovaRound of 64Wisconsin over High PointRound of 64Arkansas over HawaiiRound of 64BYU over Texas/NC StRound of 64Gonzaga over Kennesaw StRound of 64Miami (FL) over MissouriRound of 64Purdue over QueensRound of 32Arizona over Utah StRound of 32Arkansas over WisconsinRound of 32BYU over GonzagaRound of 32Purdue over Miami (FL)Sweet 16Arizona over ArkansasSweet 16Purdue over BYUElite EightArizona over PurdueFinal Four and National Championship predictions
RoundPickFinal FourArizona over Iowa StateFinal FourDuke over FloridaNational ChampionshipArizona over DukeJoin Covers' 25K March Tourney Challenge today!This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.