Kansas or Cal Baptist? How to pick 4 vs. 13 matchup in 2026 March Madness bracket originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Bill Self, Darryn Peterson, and the Kansas Jayhawks know what it takes to win it all in March Madness, but they enter the 2026 tournament needing to prove they can shake off a rocky finish to the season. As a No. 4 seed in the East Region, Kansas faces an intriguing opening-round test against WAC champion Cal Baptist, a defensive-minded squad that will look to turn the Jayhawks' recent offensive struggles into a full-blown upset alert.
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The Jayhawks arrive in Buffalo with a 23-10 record and the prestige of a Bill Self-led roster, but they are searching for consistency after a humbling 69-47 loss to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals. To navigate a path that potentially includes heavyweight matchups against blue bloods like Duke or UConn, Kansas must rely on the elite shot-creation of freshman phenom Darryn Peterson. The projected top-five NBA pick has been the engine of the Jayhawks' attack, averaging nearly 20 points per game, and his ability to dominate on the perimeter is the key to unlocking a deep run.
However, the Jayhawks cannot afford to overlook a Cal Baptist Lancers team that is riding a massive wave of momentum into its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Cal Baptist has won 13 of its last 15 games, fueled by the heroics of WAC Player of the Year Dominique Daniels Jr., who is coming off a staggering 41-point performance in the conference semifinals. While Flory Bidunga and the Kansas frontcourt offer a significant size advantage, the Lancers’ top-40 nationally ranked scoring defense is designed to frustrate high-major opponents. If Kansas allows Daniels to get into a rhythm early, the Jayhawks could find themselves in a 40-minute dogfight far earlier than expected.
Here is a complete preview of the matchup as Kansas starts the campaign for its fifth national championship in program history.
MARCH MADNESS HQ:Live NCAA bracket | TV schedule | Printable bracket
Kansas vs. California Baptist odds
Peterson and Kansas enter their first round matchup as a double-digit favorite over the WAC champions, according to DraftKings.
The Jayhawks lost in the first round a year ago to John Calipari and Arkansas. KU is looking to advance past the first weekend for the first time since they won the 2022 National Championship.
- Odds: Kansas -14.5
- Date: Friday, Mar. 20
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Arena: Enterprise Arena, St. Louis, Missouri
WATCH: No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 California Baptist on CBS with Fubo
Kansas (23-10, 12-6 in Big 12)
The college basketball world wasn’t totally sure what to make of Kansas entering the season, with Darryn Peterson an unknown and Bill Self trying to make up for a fruitless transfer portal class the previous year. While we now know Peterson is capable of brilliance and many of Self’s additions have been nice fits, there still seems to be a wide range of outcomes possible for this Jayhawks team.
Peterson is the elephant in the room. He’s missed 11 games this season, some under mysterious circumstances, but he seems to be mostly healthy entering the NCAA Tournament and has been pretty stellar when on the court. While he isn’t going to set up his teammates much – he averages fewer than two assists per game – Kansas is better off with the ball in his hands when a shot needs to be made.
This is a very strong defensive rebounding team, led by big man Flory Bidunga’s emergence. Bidunga is averaging 2.6 blocks per game in his sophomore season, and all five Kansas starters are capable rebounders at the very least. Peterson is so essential because Tre White is really the only other reliable shooter on this team, but Kansas’ 9-2 record without Peterson – including a win over Arizona – serves as a reminder that Self can still coach this team up regardless.
Kansas is holding opponents to under 39 percent from the field, a top-10 mark nationally. A strong perimeter defense is matched by an even better interior defense, led by Bidunga’s size. As has been the case for the Jayhawks in recent years, depth isn’t a strength. Elmarko Jackson gives Kansas a solid guard off the bench, but the rotation is only about seven deep for the most part.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Kansas fall in the second round, but Peterson’s sky-high ceiling, a solid supporting cast and a two-time champion head coach mean the right draw could put the Jayhawks in Elite Eight or even Final Four contention. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 21st
- KenPom ranking: 21st
- Quad 1 record: 9-9
- Quad 2 record: 7-1
- Quad 3 record: 4-0
- Quad 4 record: 3-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 57th
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 10th
Key players
Darryn Peterson, G, Fr. (6-5, 25): 19.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 38.4% 3-pt
Flory Bidunga, C, So. (6-9, 220): 13.5 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 2.6 bpg
Melvin Council Jr., G, So. (6-4, 185): 12.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 5.1 apg
Tre White, G, Sr. (6-7, 210): 13.8 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 42.1% 3-pt
Bryson Tiller, F, Fr. (6-10, 240): 8.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.3 bpg
SN EXPERT BRACKETS:DeCourcy (Arizona) | Bender (Michigan) | Iyer (Arizona) | Gay (UCLA women)
Cal Baptist (24-8, 13-5 in WAC)
A missed dunk by Utah Valley sent Cal Baptist to the NCAA Tournament for the first time, and the Lancers are on the 13-line hoping to make some noise with a first-round upset.
If an upset is in the cards for Cal Baptist, defense will likely be the reason why. The Lancers’ defense ranks top-50 nationally in efficiency, holding opponents under 68 points per game. Teams are shooting a dismal 29.6 percent from 3-point range against Cal Baptist and aren’t much better closer to the rim. The Lancers play at a fairly slow pace, so they will aim to slow the game down and take teams out of their rhythm as long as they are still standing.
Cal Baptist doesn’t have the kind of offense that typically keeps up with single-digit seeds, but this team does have a potential March favorite in 5-10 guard Dominique Daniels Jr. While undersized, Daniels was a killer this season, averaging 23.2 points per game and hitting the game-winning shot in the WAC title game. Much of the Lancers’ offense runs through Daniels, but he is prone to some off nights and has battled efficiency issues from beyond the arc.
When Daniels’ shots aren’t falling, there aren’t enough gifted offensive pieces around him for Cal Baptist to survive against a high-level team. The Lancers are a terrific offensive rebounding team and give themselves second chances that way, but the size and physicality of NCAA Tournament teams could make that difficult.
The path to an upset for Cal Baptist runs through defense, but Daniels rising to the occasion would be a game-changer. -Dan Treacy
- NET ranking: 100th
- KenPom ranking: 106th
- Quad 1 record: 0-1
- Quad 2 record: 1-4
- Quad 3 record: 5-3
- Quad 4 record: 18-0
- Offensive efficiency ranking: 191st
- Defensive efficiency ranking: 49th
Key players
Dominique Daniels Jr., G, Sr. (5-10, 180): 23.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.2 apg
Martel Williams, G, Sr. (6-3, 200): 12.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 apg
Jayden Jackson, G, Sr. (6-3, 200): 9.5 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 36.3% 3-pt
Jonathan Griman, F, Jr. (6-11, 200): 5.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.0 bpg
Thomas Ndong, F, Jr. (6-10, 245): 5.2 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 0.5 bpg
SN AWARDS: All-America team | Player of the Year | Coach of the Year
Kansas vs. California Baptist prediction
There have been plenty of prolific mid-major scorers who have gotten their shot at Kansas in the NCAA Tournament, from Steve Nash's 1996 Santa Clara squad that pushed the Jayhawks in the second round to the recent 2024 scare against Samford’s high-flying attack. This year, the spotlight shifts to WAC Player of the Year Dominique Daniels Jr., a scoring machine who enters San Diego fresh off a masterpiece in the conference tournament. Daniels isn't just a volume shooter; he’s the motor of a Cal Baptist team making its first-ever Big Dance appearance, and he has the microwave potential to make even a Bill Self-coached defense sweat.
For Kansas, the focus is on a different kind of star: freshman phenom Darryn Peterson. While the Jayhawks limped into the postseason following a heavy loss to Houston, they remain one of the most dangerous No. 4 seeds in the country when Peterson is in a rhythm. Flory Bidunga, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, provides a massive advantage in the paint that Cal Baptist will struggle to match. If Bidunga can neutralize the Lancers' interior game and force Daniels to settle for contested jumpers, the Jayhawks should be able to dictate the tempo. However, if Kansas allows the Lancers to hang around early, the pressure of a potential 13-over-4 upset will only grow.
Expect Peterson to get his fair share of points, whether it's because of a strong first half or a consistent game where he gets to the line. But, who else will score for Kansas? Melvin Council Jr., Tre White and Bidunga have all had their marquee moments this season, and one of them has to accompany No. 22 not only for the first round, but however far Kansas goes.
The pick: Kansas 80, Cal Baptist 67. Cal Baptist has the heart and a legitimate superstar in Dominique Daniels Jr., but the Jayhawks’ length and postseason pedigree are the ultimate equalizers. Peterson and Melvin Council Jr. should provide enough perimeter punch to overcome a slow start, while Bidunga’s rim protection ensures the Lancers won't find easy buckets in the paint. Expect the Jayhawks to eventually flex their high-major muscle, pulling away for a 13-point victory to advance to the Round of 32.
HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
16 vs. 1 | 15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5
History of 4 vs. 13 upsets in NCAA Tournament
There has been at least one upset in a 4-13 matchup in five of the last six tournaments. But, 2025 was the first time in eight years that all four seeds advanced out of the first round.
Here is a look at the recent 4-13 upsets:
YearResult2024Yale 78, Auburn 762023Furman 68, Virginia 672021Ohio 62, Virginia 582021North Texas 78, Purdue 69 (OT)2019UC Irvine 70, Kansas State 642018Marshall 81, Wichita State 752018Buffalo 89, Arizona 692016Hawaii 77, California 662013La Salle 63, Kansas State 612012Ohio 65, Michigan 602011Morehead State 62, Louisville 612010Murray State 66, Vanderbilt 652009Cleveland State 84, Wake Forest 69Dan Treacy contributed to this article.