With John Tory saying that he won’t run in October’s mayoral election , it appears we have a race.
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A new poll from Abacus Data shows that in a head-to-head showdown, City Councillor Brad Bradford is statistically tied with Mayor Olivia Chow.
Whether we get a head-to-head showdown or other major candidates enter the race remains to be seen. So far though, Bradford is the only declared candidate with Chow expected to announce her re-election bid soon.
Abacus Data polled 1,001 Toronto residents just over a month ago , between Jan. 22 and 27, and found 37% said they would vote for Chow and 34% said they would vote for Bradford.
Among voters who said they were familiar with the two candidates, meaning likely voters, the result changed to 39% saying they would vote for Chow and 38% said they would vote for Bradford with 24% saying they were undecided.
In the last election that saw Chow take the mayor’s chair, Abacus Data did work for Bradford’s campaign. It should also be noted that Bradford and Abacus Data CEO David Coletto are friends.
That said, Coletto and his firm have a strong track record of accurate polling, and at this point are not working for Bradford’s campaign.
In releasing his numbers, Coletto said John Tory’s possible entry into the race had created uncertainty for voters over the last year.
“With that uncertainty gone, the mayoral race snaps into clearer focus. What looked like a potentially crowded contest now looks increasingly like a head-to-head between Olivia Chow and Brad Bradford,” Coletto said. “It is a competitive race that Bradford can win.”
His numbers find Chow strongest in the old city of Toronto and East York with Bradford strongest in Etobicoke. The two candidates are effectively tied in North York and Scarborough.
Coletto finds that Chow benefits from stronger name recognition than Bradford, but that is also a weakness.
Only 3% of poll respondents said they didn’t know enough about Olivia Chow to provide an impression of her, and 39% had a positive impression. The problem for the Mayor is that 40% had a negative impression and 17% are neutral.
By comparison, Bradford only has 32% saying they have a positive impression of him, but only 16% have a negative impression. There are 17% of voters who say they don’t know enough about him to form an impression and 36% who say they are neutral.
In a race this close, that gives Bradford more room to grow than Chow, which is a real advantage for the challenger.
The vote this fall should be about a change election.
The city under Mayor Olivia Chow is not working properly, basic services are not being provided as they should. Just look at the fact that more than a month after January’s big snow storm, the city is still clearing away snow – though mostly they seem to be waiting for the warm weather coming later this week.
In his statement announcing that he wouldn’t run, John Tory described the decline of Toronto.
“We need a safe city where regardless of statistics, people actually feel safe; a city where open-air drug use on our streets and encampments in our parks are not normalized and just accepted; where the transit system is reliable, efficient and safe,” he said. “We’ve been that place in the past. We can be that place again.”
Olivia Chow incapable of dealing with Toronto’s major problems
If what John Tory said in that statement resonates with you, if you want a better city, then Olivia Chow cannot be returned as mayor. She has shown herself incapable of dealing with the major problems facing Toronto.
Voters who were considering backing Tory should be looking to Bradford.
Contacted Wednesday morning, Bradford thanked Tory for his many years of service.
“John dedicated a good portion of his life for public service, and the city is better off for that,” he said.
As he has done in the past, Bradford said his focus, if elected mayor, will be on providing the basic services that have been left by the wayside over the last several years.
“It’s time that Torontonians demanded more from City Hall. It’s time we had an administration that can deliver on the basics,” Bradford said.
“This needs to be a city that can clear the snow in the winter , keep the pools open in the summer and let parents register their kids for swimming lessons.”
Like Tory said, we’ve been that city before and can be that city again, but not with Olivia Chow in charge.